ICS Working papers

China’s Obscure Economic Prospects and Effects for the Communist Party

Since the late 1970s, the Chinese economy grew at exceptionally high rates. Today, however, the prospects are bleak: Real estate in China is probably highly overvalued and a correction of price levels overdue. At the same time, China’s demographic development is problematic: There are far too few young people. An ageing China will face many problems, but in particular a solution of the real estate problems will be difficult, if not impossible, if there are fewer and fewer Chinese citizens. Most likely, China is facing a prolonged phase of slow growth or even stagnation. Not tackling the issues will be worse, for the adjustment process will eventually be even more painful. The United Nations are suggesting that China’s population may shrink to about half its current level by 2100. Since China does not consider immigration, the ageing population will be a drag on economic development, including, of course, real estate.


Keywords: #China, #ChineseEconomy, #RealEstate, #SlowGrowth, #AgeingPopulation, #EconomicDevelopment


Heribert Dieter

Senior Fellow, German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), Berlin

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