Insights and Updates

Insights and Updates

Insights and Updates

Date:19 October 2017

Day II. Updates

 Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, as a new ideological canon!

Today, CPC says 新时代中国特色社会注意思想, as the new ideological canon, and duly endorsed by three senior PBSC members- Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zhengsheng and Liu Yunshan before retiring by the next Spring in 2018. However, in his report yesterday, Xi’s name did not feature, and it is likely by the end of the congress and first plenary session of the 19th CC, it will be endorsed. So he wants the party to endorse him than himself?

Personnel Arrangements: Xi’s Way

It is likely Li Zhanshu, Politburo member and Director of the General Office, will be promoted to the Politburo Standing Committee (PBSC), and Zhao Leji to succeed Wang Qishan as CCDI boss and to the PBSC. Zhao Leji is also the PB member and Head of the Organization Department. If appointed and confirmed then who will be the other 3 or 5?

34 Party Congress Delegates disqualified over disciplinary and legal violations. Among them is Sun Zhengcai, the PB member and once potential successor.

Date: 18 October 2017

Day I. Updates

Xi Jinping’s political report to the Party Congress took the usual tone in explaining the achievements of the party under his leadership in the last five years. He also candidly tried to stress also on the challenges for the party state in the coming future. In fact the report is the comprehensive summary of the last five years and the glance of the future of China.

Highlights

Acknowledging the role and contributions of Marxism in Chinese polity and as a party guiding ideology along with Mao Zedong Thought, Deng Xiaoping Theory, Theory of Three Represents and Scientific Outlook on Development, Xi Jinping stressed that socialism can only save China to achieve its ideals, and Socialism with Chinese Characteristics has entered a New Era  "新时代中国特色社会主义思想". That is 'strong' and 'capable' which defines the Chinese state today. Similarly, in his speech, there were more references to ‘Four confidences’ and Four Comprehensives’. It is likely these will be canonized in the party constitution as a part of Xi Jinping Thought if it may be.

Secondly, the aspiration and goal of China to become a moderately prosperous society by 2020-2035, and developed socialist nation in 15 years from 2035 . This  has to be based on 'balanced development' which is inclusive of both material and cultural needs. Public goods such as rule of law, clean governance, justice and fairness, security is to be guaranteed by the state, thus creating a ‘modern socialist country’.

China’s aim now should have high-quality development, and make Chinese enterprises globally competitive and sustainable. This should harness and develop state of the art technology, and stress on innovation. But at the same time environment and climate protection programme will be undertaken. Xi also emphasized on the ‘harmonious existence of human and nature’. With Trump leaving the Paris Climate accord, Xi has got more elbow room to lead the nations on climate change.

Apart from export led growth, the report suggests on the state’s focus on increasing domestic consumption, or consumption led growth. Greater stress monetary and fiscal reforms will be envisaged. China will also encourage greater ease in market access to encourage foreign investments and protection of their interests. For this, the urgency of rule base law is necessitated, and rightly indicated that a small leading group on advancing law-based governance will set up soon.

Report also dealt on military mechanization. With IT application, the strategic capabilities of the military will greatly be enhanced. By 2035 military modernization of the armed forces and national defence will be completed, and by mid-century will become a world class military. However, China will not seek hegemony and be expansionist.

One of the most important aspect of the report was section on ‘party building’ and ‘anti-corruption.’ Party is all comprehensive, and  is a 'mover and shaker' of everything. Xi stressed that corruption as biggest ‘threat’ to the party, and the fight against corruption will never end. Read more…..

In the report, 14-point principles encapsulates Xi Jinping's agenda of the Socialism with Chinese Characteristics in the New Era ( 新时代中国特色社会主义思想). 

  1. Ensure Party leadership over all affairs;

  2. Commit to a people-centred approach;

  3. Contiinue to comprehensively deepen reform;

  4. Adopt a new vision for development;

  5. Ensure people run the country;

  6. Ensure every dimension of governance is law-based;

  7. Uphold core socialist values;

  8. Ensure & Improve living standards through development;

  9. Ensure harmony between human and nature;

  10. Pursue a holistic approach to national security;

  11. Uphold absolute Party leadership over the people's forces;

  12. Uphold the principle of "one country, two systems" & promoting national reunification;

  13. Promote the building of a community with a shared future for mankind;

  14. Exercise full & rigorous governance over the Party.

Date:17 October 2017

Party Congress Press Conference

Tuo Zhen, the spokesperson for the 19th CPC National Congress in his first press conference to the media said, that out of proposed 2300 party congress delegates, the final attendee are 2280 only. This is the third list, and twice revised after the earlier 2287 slated to attend the party congress. Thus earlier 13 were ‘disinvited’ and now further 7 delegate members were again disqualified.

Some of the delegates' social/occupational background:

  • 33.8 percent represented grassroots organizations

  • 8.7 percent are workers

  • 3.8 percent are farmers

  • 12.4 percent are trained technicians

  • 12 percent from the PLA

  • 70 percent and more are less than 55 years of age

  • Most of party delegates joined the party since the gaige kaifang

CPC Politburo Members and Representations

The 19th CPC National Congress is beginning on Wednesday, 18th October 2017, that is tomorrow. Sharing this table that shows where the 25 Politburo (PB) members have chosen their constituencies. This time ‘Tibet’ is not represented by the existing 25 PB members.  Wu Yingjie,  the current Tibet party secretary, and a Xi loyalist is speculated to become one of the PB member.

Xi Jinping has made sure no province will have more than one Politburo representations. In 2012, Shanghai alone had three members in the Politburo- Xi Jinping; Yu Zhengsheng and Han Zheng. Going with the principle of “qishang ba xia”,  that is on the eve of the congress, if the incumbent leader reaches the age of 67 years then he/she can stay for next one term, but if 68 years then the incumbent has to retire, the readers will also find who are going to stay and retain their positions in the Politburo and among whom some will be promoted to the PB Standing Committee.

Members

19th Party Congress (2017)

18th Party Congress (2012)

Xi Jinping (1953)

Guizhou

Shanghai

Li Keqiang (1955)

Guangxi

Shandong

Zhang Dejiang (1946)

Inner Mongolia

Chongqing

Yu Zhengsheng ( 1945)

Xinjiang

Shanghai

Liu Yunshan (1947)

Yunnan

Henan

Wang Qishan (1948)

Hunan

Shanxi

Zhang Gaoli (1946)

Shaanxi

Tianjin

Ma Kai (1946)

Gansu

Central State Institutions

Wang Huning (1955)

Hainan

Tibet

Liu QIbao (1953)

Jiangxi

Sichuan

Han Zheng (1954)

Shanghai

Shanghai

Hu Chunhua (1963)

Guangdong

Inner Mongolia

Sun Zhengcai (1963)**

Chongqing

Jilin

Li Yuanchao (1950)

Qinghai

Jiangsu

Li Zhanshu  (1950)

Central Party Organ

Guizhou

Zhao Leji  (1957)

Heilongjiang

Shaanxi

Xu Qiliang (1950)

PLA

PLA

Liu Yandong (f.1945)

Anhui

Hebei

Sun Chunlan (f. 1950)

Jilin

Fujian

Li JIanguo (1946)

Hebei

Shangdong

Wang Yang (1955)

Sichuan

Guangdong

Zhang Chunxian (1953)

Hubei

Xinjiang

Fan Changlong (1947)

PLA

PLA

Meng Jianzhu (1947)

Henan

Public Security Organization

Guo Jinlong (1947)

Beijing

Beijing

**Expelled, and under investigation. He is replaced by Chen Miner, a Xi confidant, who is a probable candidate for the PBSC.

 

Run-up to the Party Congress: What does the statistics say?

On Tuesday, 10th October, just one-week before the 19th National Congress of the CPC, the party-state’s national data centre—National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released a data on the state of the economy in China since the last party congress. So let us see what the figures tell? Who is to stake the claim of the achievements or take a blame: the leader or the party? But everything seems rosy as of now. These statistics also have included the investments and trade flows among the Belt and Road countries. The report also says that under Xi Jinping’s ‘core leadership’ the Chinese nation has ‘blazed new trails’ for realizing the Chinese dream. But the contribution of Hu-Wen leadership steering the economy post-2008 crisis cannot be ignored, even if Xi has!

 Categories

 Years

 Trends

 GDP

 

 2013-16

 2016

 7.2 percent growth

 11.6 trillion USD (14.8 percent of the world econmy)

 Employment

 

 Unemployment rate

 Rural labour in cities

 2013-16

 2017-

 ----

 2013-16

 13 million jobs annually

 9.4 million jobs

 5 percent (31 large cities surveyed)

 1.8 percent (annual rate of increase)

 Innovation

 Registered new firms

 Patent applications

 2012-16

 2014-16

 2012-16

 1.57 trillion yuan (2016)

 13.62 million (annual increase of 30 percent)

 Received more than 69% & granted almost 40%

 Structural Reforms

  • Service sector
  • Finalconsumption expenditure
  • Urban households

 

 2013-16

 

 2013-16

 2016

 

 8 percent (annual rate) of growth

 

 55 percent

 57.35 percent (2016  year end)

 International Trade

 Import/Exports (total value)

 BRI counties

 

2016

2016

 

24.3 trillion yuan

6.3 trillion yuan

 People’s Livelihood

  • Disposable Income
  • Poverty population
  • Life Expectancy

 

 2016

 2016

 2015

 

 23,821 yuan (In 2012, it was 7,311 yuan)

 43.35 million (in 2012, it was 99 million apx.)

 76.34 years (in 2010, 74.83 year

Source: http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/201710/t20171010_1540652.html
 

Date: October 9, 2017

7th Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee

The 7th and Final Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee will convene on October 11. Being the last plenary session of the out-going congress, it is a preparatory and dress-rehearsal for the new national congress. As declared already, 19th CPC National Congress will begin from 18, and will continue for a week.

CPC’s Anti-Corruption Campaign

The 8th Plenum of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) of the 18th CPC National Congress began today that is October 9, 2017. It is a 119 member body with 12 non-voting members, and chaired by CCDI secretary and PBSC member Wang Qishan. The CCDI, the party state’s watch-dog, in a preliminary report on Sunday, October 8, 2017 released data on recent developments in anti-corruption campaign. According to the report, more than 1.34 million township-level and 648,000 party members and officials were investigated and punished during the five-year anti-graft campaign started after Xi Jinping’s took the reins of the Party in 2012.

Similarly at the higher echelons, that is from the county and above, more than 70,000 officials have been investigated for corruption including the ‘tigers’ since 18th CPC Congress in 2012. Even many residing abroad are arrested and charged. The latest incident is Ms. Guo Xin, former associate professor in the School of History and Archives Sciences, Yunnan University. She was in the US until recently.

See More: http://www.ccdi.gov.cn/xwtt/201709/t20170930_108298.html

Date: October 6, 2017

The up-coming 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China scheduled from 18-25 October 2017, in Beijing has become a focus of attention, both within and outside China. Once in every 5 years since the early 1980s, the party national congress has shown how elite politics in China is conducted—sometimes expected, otherwise not. This year too, an unexpected happened when a prominent Politburo member and a potential successor was purged. In the Spring of 2012, Bo Xilai was ejected, this year Sun Zhengcai, slated to succeed Xi Jinping, is brought down before the congress. Both were serving Chongqing Party secretaries before their dismissals.

Though the stage is set, and curtains drawn for unveiling the leaders among the ‘elected’ 2287 delegates, the CPC’s secrecy in anointing prospective candidates for various organs of the party—Politburo, Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the Secretariat, Central Military Commission from the up-coming new central committee is still speculated.

Until now, rumours are rife with various candidates’ names doing rounds to occupy these powerful party positions, but under Xi Jinping’s all-embracing power, the mystery ensues as some of his confidants like Wang Qishan is slated to stay, and Chen Miner, one of Xi’s protégés is likely to jump the line to become the PBSC member. Thus, how will the leadership reshuffle take place at the congress will impact China’s political landscape in the coming future. The implications can have  both internal and external.

 

Wang Qishan- Will he, will he not?

Xi Jinping’s Man Friday, Wang Qishan, the CCDI boss, and one of the current seven PBSC members is likely to retain his position. Although reaching 69 years of age, Wang, a close confidant of Xi may be blessed with another fiver year term. His close association with the ‘yibashou’—Mr. Xi, and the latter’s not so shy attitude to break the ‘existing norms’ have become friends with mutual benefits by bringing down cadres and detractors alike accused of ‘violation of party discipline.’  However, Wang’s speculated non-retirement if successfully realized will destabilize the ‘age norm’ criteria, a convention established to institutionalize succession politics.

Xi Jinping trying to retain Wang Qishan, a technocrat and professional, one can also see that the former trying to use Wang as a ‘pawn’ to test his power among the high politics at Beijing. If Wang’s position is retained, then Xi Jinping’s position can also be secured at the 20th Party Congress in 2022, when Xi will also be 69.

 

Prospective PBSC Members (First Seven)

  1. Xi Jinping  (1953), General Secretary, 18th PBSC
  2. Li Keqiang (1955), PBSC Member, Premier, 18th PBSC
  3. Li Zhanshu (1950), Head, General Office, 18th CC
  4. Zhao Leji (1957), Head, CPC Organization Dept. 18th CC
  5. Chen Miner (1960), Party Secretary, Chongqing, 18th CC
  6. Han Zheng (1954), Party Secretary, Shanghai, 18th Politburo
  7. Hu Chunhua (1963), Party Secretary, Guangdong, 18th Politburo
  8. Wang Yang (1955), Vice-Premier, Politburo member
  9. Cai Qi (1955), Party Secretary, Beijing, 18th CC            
  10. Wang Qishan (1948), CCDI Boss, 18th PBSC          

 

Bo-Wang-Sun’-Is Xi Jinping draining the swamp?

Last week, the revised delegates attending the 19th CPC National Congress on 18th October were reduced to 2287 members from the proposed 2300 delegates. The 13 delegates whose names that were ‘struck-off’ belonged to the Chongqing Municipality, and five were senior members of the Chongqing Municipal Party Standing Committee. The total delegates from Chongqing were 43, including Sun Zhengcai, the disgraced party secretary.

The five senior members are Zeng Qinghong (female), in-charge of the personnel affairs; Liu Qiang, in-charge of police and judicial & vice mayor; Wang Xiangang, head of secretariat of municipal committee; Chen Lüping, vice mayor; and Tao Changhai, liaison head, overseas Chinese groups.

The legacy of ‘Bo-Wang-Sun’ (BWS) has now haunted others down the administration as well. The rule of the game has become “winner takes all’ by draining the swamp, that is cleaning up the remnants of the BWS by Xi under Chen Miner and Wang Qishan’s stewardship again shows ruthless political struggle that leaves no tolerance for dissent and differences among the political elites. 




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