Chair & Moderator: Ambassador Ashok K. Kantha, Director, ICS
Speaker 1 - Lt. General SL Narasimhan
Abstract - China's Military Reforms and Implications for India
In late 2015, China announced sweeping reforms of her armed forces. There are mainly six issues that dominate these reforms. They are, reduction of 300000 troops, changes in higher defence organization, creation of a Headquarters for Peoples Liberation Army (PLA), reorganization of military area commands into theatre commands and creation of PLA Rocket Force and Strategic Support Force (SSF). It has been felt that these reforms have been brought about to tighten the grip of Mr Xi Jinping on the PLA. Nothing could be far from truth. Each one of the reforms is significant and has pros and cons of their own. The reforms have run their course for more than a year. Some sweeping changes have been made in the PLA and its way of functioning in this period. It is intended to analyse the impact of these reforms and their implications for India.
Lt Gen SL Narasimhan, PVSM, AVSM**, VSM (Retd) is a Madras Regiment Officer and is a graduate in Mathematics. He is a post graduate in Defence Studies and presently a PhD Candidate. He has seen action in Op PAWAN in 1987 in Sri Lanka and has a vast experience in 'Counter Insurgency Operations, Line of Actual Control and High Altitude Area environment. After having successfully commanded the largest Corps of the Army in the North East, Narasimhan attained super annuation after a successful stint as Commandant, Army War College. He is well accomplished in the Chinese language. Lt Gen S L Narasimhan has authored many articles in various journals and magazines. He is presently Member of the National Security Advisory Board.
Speaker 2 - Mr.Jayadeva Ranade
Abstract - Internal Security Situation in China and its Implications
At the outset it is important to clarify that China's internal security situation is not such that threatens the CCP. At the same time it is causing considerable anxiety to China's leadership. These cover the following areas: popular discontent caused by lack of jobs and closure of mines and factories leading to over 300 million getting unemployed; unemployment among graduates touching almost 20 per cent; and discontent among veteran and demobilised soldiers due to non-payment of salaries and dues. Added to this, are the disturbed conditions in Tibet and Xinjiang, in both of which, China's public security budget exceeds US$ 1.10 billion each. The issue of the Dalai Lama's reincarnation also looms large. Hong Kong has in recent months become problematic with locals insisting that the Basic Law cannot be reinterpreted by the National people’s Congress (NPC). China is tackling this with the imposition of increasingly restrictive measures making the state more brittle. This, over the long term, could heighten vulnerability.
Mr. Jayadeva Ranade, is a Member of the National Security Advisory Board (NSAB) and President of the ‘Centre for China Analysis and Strategy’, New Delhi. A former Additional Secretary in the Cabinet Secretariat, Government of India, he is also a Member of the Core Group on China of the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA) and Distinguished Fellow at the Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), New Delhi. He is a security and intelligence expert and a seasoned China analyst with almost 30 years of experience in the field. He has been directly involved in formulation of policy at the highest levels in the Government of India. Ranade is the author of the book ‘China Unveiled: Insights into Chinese Strategic Thinking’ released in January 2013. He contributes to many mainstream national newspapers, magazines and leading publications, mostly on strategic and security issues relating to China, Tibet and East Asia.
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